If you like Cinderellas, you've come to the wrong Elite Eight. Five of the top eight seeds remain, and when Florida's your cuddly underdog, you know this is a big-boy bracket. Mix in arguably seven of the game's top 10 coaches (with the outsider, Scott Drew, in his second regional final in three seasons) and there are a lot of talking points, both on the court and on the sidelines.
Here's what's on tap for Saturday, when the first two tickets to New Orleans will be punched:
West Regional Final No. 4 Louisville vs. No. 7 Florida (4:30 p.m. ET)The West was probably considered the most likely region to feature some mayhem, although this particular pairing is not really all that unexpected. A lot of people saw Michigan State's draw of Memphis/Saint Louis and then New Mexico/Louisville and thought they could be picked off. Florida inherited Missouri's draw, so anyone who had the Tigers in NOLA (like me) isn't surprised by their proxy making this run.
1) Will Louisville's defense hold up against Florida?On paper, the Gators appear to be a bad matchup for Louisville, with a slew of perimeter shooters (including a stretch 4) to exploit the zone from the arc. Gorgui Dieng should be OK on Patric Young on the block, but can Florida force him into ball-screen coverage and get him on the move? Florida has a rep for recklessness offensively, but that's more from shot selection than turnovers. Both Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton are pretty careful with the ball, so the impact of the Louisville press will be interesting. And all that doesn't mention .
2) Is Brad Beal exploding before our very eyes?Beal is easily the most talented player on the floor for either team. He has 49 points and 26 rebounds in three NCAA games while taking just 26 shots. Florida is making better use of out-of-bounds and out-of-timeout situations to get him the shots that sometimes don't come organically in the Gators' offense. If the Florida 3-point shooters are making some jump shots, Beal should have more and more room to attack as the zone has to extend.
3) Will Louisville need to win the game with its *offense*?That may be overstating it, but the Cardinals will have to find a way to score. They're not capable of winning a shootout. Some offense will have to come in transition off defensive stops, but Florida is not a great defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, and Louisville should be able to get something done inside. They should have a mismatch with whomever is not being checked by Patric Young. If that's Chane Behanan, all the better. Russ Smith also has been percolating and is due for an explosion. This could be the right kind of game and opponent for him.
Prediction: Florida 68, Louisville 60
East Regional Final No. 1 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Ohio State (7:05 p.m. ET)The highly anticipated heavyweight showdown has manifested itself, with two of the nation's four most talented teams (along with Kentucky and healthy North Carolina) square off for a trip to NOLA. There's a lot of star power in this one, with a style contrast that should make for a great fight.
1) Who will Aaron Craft guard, and what will his impact be?In Friday's news conference, Thad Matta's response was "everyone." While that was good for a laugh, Matta's going to have to pick his poison and hope Syracuse's secondary ballhandlers aren't better than his secondary perimeter on-ball defenders. You'd expect Craft to start on Scoop Jardine, but Syracuse has plenty of other options, starting with uber-athlete Dion Waiters or using a 2 or 3 to initiate to try to keep Craft away from the ball.
2) How will the Jared Sullinger-Deshaun Thomas combo function against the Syracuse zone?This is clearly the best big-man tandem the Orange will face in the NCAAs, and their zone has been attacked very successfully in this tournament. What Wisconsin had that Kansas State and UNC-Asheville did not was a legit threat who could pass and make shots from the free-throw line, one of the zone's vulnerable spots. Thomas is skilled enough, but he works better from the wing and on the baseline, so using him there may not be optimal, especially if William Buford doesn't shoot well. While Sullinger said Friday he expected to play some high post, that's also not the best spot for him. He should be able to do work on the offensive glass against 'Cuse's interior. Does Buford cut in from the wing and do some work? Who Matta uses in that role, and how well he functions, may be *the* key to the game.
3) Will Syracuse's depth and size advantages wear down Ohio State?Matta's not shy about running his starters into the ground, and against a zone team, maybe he can get away with that a bit more. Even without Fab Melo, though, Syracuse goes eight deep with legitimate players, all of whom are long and many athletic. Can Sullinger function for close to 40 minutes on the block and score consistently against size while staying out of foul trouble? Will Craft and Lenzelle Smith be able to handle the bigger 'Cuse backcourt at both ends?
Prediction: Syracuse 72, Ohio State 68
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